Hydrogen

After a 2022 marked by a significant increase in Europe's ambitions for hydrogen development and a flurry of project announcements following the gas crisis and the war in Ukraine, 2023 represents a "desert crossing" for the industry, awaiting, on one hand, the clarification of European rules and the updating of national strategies, and on the other hand, and above all, the implementation and scaling up of public support mechanisms that are now more necessary than ever to trigger investments in a context of rising short-term production costs for electrolytic H2 (increased CAPEX, higher electricity prices compared to pre-crisis situation).

If the implementation of these support mechanisms could take place in 2024 and truly launch the development of the sector, many uncertainties remain regarding the prospects for the development of decarbonized H2 in Europe.

In this context, in 2024, we will pay particular attention to the following topics:

1. The actual implementation of the expected public support mechanisms at both the European and national levels, with the latter being derived from the clarified European guidelines in 2023: What are the specifications, constraints, and opportunities for the sector? What are the national specificities or choices compared to the overall European framework, particularly regarding the "color" of H2? What is the timing? What volume? What real impact will it have on the sector?

2. The reality of the development of local production projects versus imports, in a context of currently divergent national strategies on this issue, between the German and French strategies, for example.

3. The progress of the development of large-scale infrastructure (transport, storage, terminals).

4. Industrial developments along the H2 value chain in Europe, in a context of significant challenges in combining the construction of a European industrial sector with industrial decarbonization at the lowest cost.

5. The evolution of H2 development for heavy road mobility, amidst increasing competition from batteries.

6. The potential impact of white hydrogen on all development prospects for the H2 sector in Europe.