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E-CUBE publishes a new white paper titled "Beyond RED III - Decarbonised hydrogen supply strategies in the European industry sector".
Nearly two years after the adoption of the REPowerEU plan and as REDIII just entered into force, this paper looks at which industry sectors are the most prepared to consume decarbonised hydrogen by 2030 and under which conditions.
It is based on interviews conducted in 2023 with representative players of the key industry sectors expected to consume decarbonised H2 by 2030 (refining, ammonia, steel, chemicals). The key insights collected are the following:
While REPower EU aimed at developing renewable H2 consumption in industry for both energy and feedstock uses, to date players with decarbonised H2 supply strategies in place are mostly consumers of H2 as a feedstock;
Among these latter, prospects for renewable H2 consumption by 2030 remain conditional and willingness to pay limited (< 5€/kgH2, i.e. in the lower range of expected costs of decarbonised hydrogen by 2030), except in refining;
When non-EU imports are considered by 2030, it is most often under the form of derivatives (ammonia) and for direct use under this form;
Under current conditions, widespread decarbonised H2 offtake in industry beyond large, current consumers of H2 as a feedstock by 2030 is therefore uncertain;
Faced with strong regulatory and technical uncertainties, would-be consumers should target "low regret" options and define their strategies site by site, or at the level of chemical parks, considering local opportunities and constraints.
Interested to get more details about underlying drivers and characteristics of decarbonised hydrogen supply strategies in industry? Read the full whitepaper below!
